Copper price nears record high: smelter signals and TC/RC squeeze for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper futures in New York climbed more than 5% this week to $6.11/lb ($13,480/t), nearing January’s record close as satellite data show Chinese smelters running at unprecedented levels. Earth-i’s SAVANT index reports China’s inactive capacity at just 3.9%, driving an all-time high active capacity of 10.73 Mt, 775,000 t above a year ago, while North American smelter inactivity has surged to 32.3%. Spot TC/RCs have flipped from +$50/t in January 2024 to about –$78.50/t, with Antofagasta’s 2026 benchmark with a Chinese smelter settling at zero, the lowest on record.
Technical Brief
- Earth-i’s SAVANT index shows global inactive smelting capacity at 11.7% in March, down from 14.3% in January.
- Chinese active smelting capacity reached 10.73 Mt, 1.49 Mt above the three-year average and rising.
- Africa’s central copper belt bucked the global pattern, with strong smelter operating performance relative to other regions.
- Two Iranian smelters totalling 400 ktpa are offline outside normal maintenance, tightening regional concentrate demand.
- The 300 ktpa Mount Isa smelter outage pushed Asia & Oceania inactivity to 18.7% versus a 5.7% three-year average.
- Europe’s idled capacity increased modestly by 2.1%, yet remains lowest globally at 6.2% inactive.
- North American smelter inactivity climbed sharply, lifting its idle-capacity index above South America’s 27.4% to 32.3%.
- FOB China sulphuric acid at $210/t in April, up 74% since January, is temporarily supporting Chinese smelter margins.
- Indonesia’s Batu Hijau export permit expiry and DRC’s 500 ktpa Kamoa-Kakula smelter start-up both divert concentrate from seaborne markets.
- Antofagasta’s 2026 benchmark TC/RC at $0 sets a new floor, reshaping long-term mine–smelter contract economics.
Our Take
Glencore’s presence here via the Mount Isa smelter outage links to our recent coverage of Canada–Quebec talks over the Horne Smelter, underscoring how ageing Glencore copper smelters in both Queensland and Quebec are becoming system-critical bottlenecks for North American and Asia–Oceania concentrate flows.
In our database of copper pieces, only a handful explicitly track sulfuric acid alongside copper, and those—like this one—tend to involve regions such as the DRC’s central copper belt where new 500 ktpa-class smelters (e.g. Kamoa-Kakula) can swing local acid markets and materially affect oxide leach and heap-leach project economics.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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